Greenland Negotiations: Why Europe Needs to Drop the Carrot and Pick Up the Stick

Disclaimer: The following is not a geopolitical opinion or an ideological stance. I view these events solely through the lens of a professional negotiator. My interest is not in who sits on the throne, but in how the game is played.

I’ve been watching the unfolding situation regarding Greenland and the looming threat of US tariffs on Europe, and I have to be honest: I can’t believe they are still using the carrot.

In any high-stakes negotiation, you must understand your counterparty. When you are dealing with an aggressive entity that deals in ultimatums, offering concessions or trying to "smooth things over" isn't diplomacy; it’s blood in the water. It signals weakness.

This is a plain negotiation matter, and right now, European leadership is doing it as wrong as it gets. They are trying to negotiate from a position of dependency and fear. To win, or at least to secure a favourable outcome, you must establish leverage. You need a stick.

Here is the strategy Europe should be employing if they actually want to change the calculus of this deal.

1. Change the NATO Equation It is time for the unthinkable. Europe should move to suspend the US from NATO while Donald Trump is in power.

I know, it sounds radical. But in negotiation, if you cannot walk away from the table, you have already lost. By signalling that the alliance is conditional on mutual respect and shared interests, Europe reclaims agency. You invite the next president back in—as long as they behave. You turn membership from a given into a privilege.

2. Build Real Capacity You cannot negotiate security if you are outsourcing it. Europe needs to build a real, capable military. The fearmongers will say this leaves Europe exposed to the East, but let’s look at the data: Russia cannot even successfully invade Ukraine. They certainly aren't rolling into the rest of Europe anytime soon.

There is a window of time here. Europe needs to use it to build a force that doesn't require American permission to operate.

3. Secure the Asset Regarding Greenland: You cannot hold territory with a handshake. You hold it with presence. Europe needs to put real military assets in Greenland. I’m not talking about 30 people and a flag. I’m talking about a force substantial enough to make the cost of an unauthorised US incursion—or an "acquisition" by force—prohibitively high. You make the asset untouchable, then you start negotiating about protecting it together.

4. The Economic Pain Threshold When the tariff threats come, the response must be immediate, overly proportional, and disproportionate. If the US imposes tariffs, Europe should double up on them.

Yes, this causes economic pain. Yes, it hurts the bottom line in the short term. But this is the crucial error modern politicians make: they are terrified of short-term pain. In a negotiation, if you aren’t willing to suffer to prove a point, you will be exploited. You have to bear the pain to prove you cannot be bullied.

The Narrative Problem The problem Europe faces isn't a lack of resources; it's a lack of will. Europe has politically weak politicians who feel their positions are too fragile to take risks. They fear the backlash of a trade war.

They are missing the bigger picture. If they rose up to the bully and coalesced into a "war economy" footing, they wouldn't lose votes—they would gain them. For the first time in decades, they would have a coherent narrative. People respect strength. Voters rally around leaders who protect the tribe.

Right now, Europe is hoping the storm passes. A Chief Negotiator knows that you don't wait for the weather to change; you build a shelter that the wolf can't blow down and, if you can't do that quickly enough, you become the wolf.

Stop offering carrots. Pick up the stick. Alex Adamo Chief Negotiator

19th January 2026